![]() Hindsight Bias can have both positive or negative influences on an individual. Media claiming, “The Fashion show went flop as the Showstopper didn’t show up” Consequences of Hindsight Bias People have a need to see the world as orderly and predictable and to avoid being blamed for problems The second level, inevitability, centres on our belief that the event was inevitable (“It had to happen”) i.e the cause of the events can be easily recognized. The hard truth is you didn’t know exactly who’s the one, you just became an example of hindsight bias caused by Memory Distortion. ![]() During the movie, your mind will be busy playing the detective role, judging every character, trying to be the first one to find the killer amongst your friends.īut as soon as the killer is revealed, you will selectively recall all the information & thoughts you had in your mind that links to the real murderer and be like, “ I knew it, I was certain he will be the guilty one!”. People selectively recall information consistent with what they now know to be true and engage in sensemaking to impose meaning on their knowledgeįor example, Remember one time when you were watching a murder mystery with your friends. The first level of hindsight bias, memory distortion, involves misremembering an earlier opinion or judgment (“I said it would happen”) Vohs in their research identified 3 situations, where hindsight bias can influence our thought process: Memory Distortion Research also focuses on how we recall selective information related to the outcome of an event to convince ourselves what happened was supposed to happen” Neal J. Knowing we can predict what happens to us helps us feel safe in an unpredictable world. So WHY are we so quick to believe that we knew-it-all when we can’t even give an objective proof to support our claim?Ĭharles Holm, in his book, ‘The 25 Cognitive Biases - Uncovering the myth of Rational Thinking’ states, “Our dire need to make sense of this world around us makes us susceptible to this bias. So, be conscious & ask yourselves next time when this bias creeps into your mind, did you really know it or you felt it or did you even ‘felt it’?. “I knew this question will come in the exam, I should have studied it”, sighed Deepti as the exam got over. Let’s understand this from the examples below. The problem with Hindsight Bias is that a lot of times we actually didn’t know it all along, we only feel as though we did. Hindsight bias is also called the ‘knew-it-all-along’ effect or ‘creeping determinism’. And only after the event has occurred do people claim this was likely to happen. The term hindsight bias refers to the tendency of the people to claim that they knew the outcome of an event all along. The hindsight bias was first reported by the American psychologist Baruch Fischhoff in 1975. Let’s take a closer look at this knew-it-all(KIA) bias, also known as Hindsight Bias & find the answers to the questions ourselves. You all must be thinking why are we discussing this here? It doesn’t hurt anyone to say that? Is it bad? Is it Good? Isn’t it something to feel proud of that you predicted something & it came true? The above situations may differ each time, but we hear ourselves say it over and over again, “I knew it all along…didn’t I”. “I knew it he will be the murderer in the end, how smart can I be”, said my friend as soon as the killer was revealed in the movie. “I knew it all along India will win this match”, Mohit burst with joy, as Dhoni hits a six in the last ball. “I knew they will get married in 2020, I foretold Richa but she kept denying”, exclaimed my friend as she saw an Instagram post of Richa getting married in 2020. “I knew that the exams will be postponed due to the pandemic”, said my friend when her exams got postponed due to the Covid-19. ![]() I knew this was going to happen”, the thought popped up in my mind as I came back to the kitchen to see the milk boiled over. “I just left the kitchen to answer the doorbell. Hindsight Bias: “I knew it all along, didn’t I?”
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